Editor’s note: The following article was written at the beginning of March and reflects the geopolitical realities at that time. Finland has since joined NATO, and Sweden’s bid still faces opposition from Turkey.

The act?

On Jan 21, 2023 Rasmus Paludan, a far-right Swedish activist burned the Quran as part of a “demonstration” in front of the Turkish embassy in Sweden. The subsequent burning of the Quran prompted a massive backlash from the Muslim world, but especially from Turkey itself, which has blamed Sweden for anti-Turkish and Islamophobic sentiments and policies. However, there is more than what is on the surface of this issue, as this was not a simple demonstration of Islamophobia, but a simple, yet machiavellian act of geopolitical sabotage.

The timing and the location of the burning has to be considered. Currently there is a large-scale war ongoing in Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion that has pitted Russia against Ukraine and indirectly against Europe and North America. In tandem, the Russian invasion has given NATO a rebirth and a confirmation of its mission, of countering Russian aggression and expansion in Europe, prompting the possibility of NATO expansion especially in the regions bordering Russia such as Sweden and Finland who in 2022,conducted a joint application to become NATO members.

Agent Provocateur?

However, there is an Achilles heel in the NATO applications of Sweden and Finland, which is Turkey. Sweden possesses a large Kurdish Minority with some of them being members of and sympathisers to the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party), considered by Turkey as well as the EU and USA as a terrorist organisation, who has waged a campaign of terror against the Turkish government since 1982. Thus, Turkey not wanting to include a country, who “aids and abets” terrorist organizations, into an alliance with itself had initially set pre conditions to Sweden’s entry into NATO, the main tenant of which was the extradition of various PKK members and cessation of support of PKK. Up until Jan 21, 2023, an agreement had been reached with Sweden, NATO and America (who in exchange for Turkey agreeing on Sweden’s membership U.S would allow the sale of 70 F-16 Block 70 multirole fighter aircraft).

The location of the event is also dubious. The burning of the Quran by Rasmus Paludan was done in front of the Turkish Embassy in Sweden, there are arguments that it is simply Islamophobic rhetoric and Kurdish sympathy (to which Rasmus Paludan has admitted to). However, the location and the timing combined with the fact that the Swedish defense minister was due to visit Ankara 2 days after to discuss Swedish entry into NATO and Swedish cooperation with Ankara in relation to Terrorism raises questions on the true motive of this “demonstration” as the result of it has been exactly what Russia would be vying for: the denial of Sweden into NATO by Turkey and thus consequently Finland, a rift created between two NATO members and fuel ethnic, racial and social tensions in Europe undermining collective unity and security similar to the Soviet active measures in the 1970s.

A closer look into the “demonstration”, and especially into its prologue, reveals an interesting connection between Rasmus Paludan and Pro-Russian elements in Europe. The alleged linkage between Rasmus Paludan and Russia/Pro-Russian groups is a “Journalist” called Chang Frick. The focal point for the connection between Frick and Paludan is the fact that; the administrative fee of 320 Swedish Krona for the “demonstration” was paid by Chang Frick on the behalf of Paludan (this was confirmed by Frick). Furthermore, the Quran burning was advertised on a Pro-Putin/Russia blog in Sweden, the blogger of which has pictures with Paludan and praised Paludan for “saving Sweden from NATO”.

The Handler?

Chang Frick is a Right wing journalist who is the Editor in chief of the “Nyeter Idag” outlet and was previously a member of the Sweden Democrats party. Nowadays, Frick is tied to the right-wing Social Democratic Party and has cooperated with them in news and media events. The outlet and Nyeter Idag and Sweden Democrats have ties to Russia through various members of Russian origin or connection to Russian businessmen such as Russian-born Egor Putilov (pseudonym) who has financial real estate transactions with a Russian businessman based in St. Petersburg with political connections. On top of that; the hosting and registration of the web domains for the Nyheter Idag were done by by Kent Ekeroth, a Sweden Democrat MP who was the international secretary of the party, during which he was said to have recruited many pro Russian members and staff to the party, who along with him were often invited to provide commentary on RT channel.

Furthermore, what is of interest in Frick’s resume is his employment at RT (Russia Today) a Russian state-controlled media outlet who quit after 2014 supposedly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, that said, Frick has been a vocal supporter of Putin, especially on twitter where he posted pictures with Putin memorabilia in 2017, years after the initial invasion of Ukraine. When asked about his role in the “demonstration”, Frick has denied claims of that it was an attempt to sabotage Turkish – Swedish relations and further added that: “If I, by paying 320 kroner in an administrative fee to the police, sabotaged the application, it was probably on very shaky ground from the beginning,”. In contrast, Paludan has stated that the idea to burn the Quran came from Frick, a claim that is left unanswered by Frick.

However, it must be stated that there is no clear evidential connection between Frick and Russia, making it difficult to determine whether Paludan or Frick are Russian assets taking orders from the Kremlin, or useful idiots peddling Russian narratives unwittingly.

Who benefits?

Whether a useful idiot or a Kremlin asset, the fact remains that the actions of Chang Frick, and subsequently Rasmus Paludan, have been of benefit to Putin and his administration by causing the deterioration of Swedish – Turkish relations, therefore preventing the ascension of Sweden to NATO as well as Finland as the application was a joint application by both states, and Finland stated its desire to enter NATO with Sweden.
Furthermore, by preventing Swedish and by extension Finnish membership to NATO, Russia is able to prevent the Baltic Sea from becoming a “NATO lake”, which would threaten Russian naval and aerial access from the port of St. Petersburg through the Baltic sea to the open seas and the exclave of Kaliningrad/Konigsberg. In addition, Finland borders Russia, therefore, NATO forces in Finland would mean that Russia would have thousands of baron and unprotected kilometres of frontier to protect against infiltration into its critical ports in St. Petersburg and Murmansk as well as the strategic nuclear silos near Murmansk in the Kola peninsula.

Thus, either way, Russia benefits from the burning of a holy book sacred for over a billion people on this planet, making it imperative that the origins and background of this “demonstration” are investigated further to see if Russian intelligence did indeed go “a book too far”.