Yugoslavia flourished as a nation following the end of World War Two as the union of the current independent states of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Montenegro. However, following the death of Josip Tito in 1980, the former leader who ruled the state from 1945 until his death, the fallacy of Yugoslavia was to implode chaos around the nationalist sentiments that had been sheltered all those years under one man’s rule. Bosnia and Herzegovina became the main battleground for the major nationalities as some sought to keep Yugoslavia together under Milosevic, while others strived for independence.  

The three-and-a-half-year war was put to an end by The Dayton Agreement, also known as the Dayton Accords, which was signed by the three warring parties; Croatia, Serbia and the three presidents of Bosnia which divided Bosnia and Herzegovina into three semi-autonomous political entities; Republika Srpska, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Brčko District, which is governed by its own local government. Dayton arguably did little to resolve the heart of the conflict, which is felt and seen today and is more of a long-term ceasefire. The agreement saw initial success in terms of establishing peace, but was undermined by the Russian return to the centre of international politics in the mid-2000s. Yet, the issues that resulted in conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina still remain, and this article aims to explain why. 

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s economic and diplomatic dependency on the European Union, and the growing influence of Russia as a neo-axis power has strained relations and the cracks within the fragile peace are all too observable. This has many reasons, and includes Russia’s collusion with the Bosnian Serbs within its held territories of Republika Srpska. Rising levels of Bosnian Serb nationalism indicates Republika Srpska risks succession from Bosnia and Herzegovina, something many Bosnian Serbs wish for. Republika Srpska regularly makes threats to move troops from the unified military to strengthen the police force of Republika Srpska. Actions like this are regular, and bring into question the very idea of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a sovereign nation-state. 

Neo-nationalist features of Republika Srpska

Most recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has influenced and inspired Bosnian Serbs to take back land they believe is rightfully theirs- this includes Kosovo. The Russian ‘‘Z’’ can be found graffitied along busy roads, alongside Russian flags, drawing upon an imagined  shared history  in Orthodox Christianity and more recently, a collective and explicit anti-Western sentiment. This is heavily illustrated in Serbia and Republika Srpska, through a shared imagery of the 1999 NATO intervention, that saw Serbian areas, including Belgrade, being heavily bombarded with many civilian casualties by Western states. Republika Srpska has been the most hostile towards foreign troops such as the UN and EUFOR peacekeepers. 

On a local level, Bosnian Serbs often use a three-finger gesture that is symbolic to Serbian nationalism, and the claim to be ‘God’s people’, a term that is frequently heard. Serbia has consistently added fuel to the fire, with vows to protect their Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

It was Serbian demand for hegemony over Bosnia and Herzegovina that was the root cause of the conflict in the 1990’s because Serbians believe the land is historically Serb, as with Kosovo. It is worth noting, war criminals such as Ratko Mladić, also known as ‘’The butcher of Bosnia’’ can regularly be seen graffitied in and around Republika Srpska, especially its capital, Banja Luka. The constant denial of war crimes and genocides only add salt to the wounds of Bosniak Muslims, who suffered the most under the Croatian and Serbian brutality, as Croatian and Serbian forces attempted to divide Bosnia and Herzegovina into a Greater Croatia and Greater Serbia correspondingly. A shared future in Bosnia and Herzegovina seems unlikely when a third of its citizens glorify the same war criminals that the rest of the population suffered under. 

These actions are a blow to the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with attacks even coming increasingly, but subtly from Bosnian Croat politicians, actions which are actively encouraged by Russia. Since the political system has had no structural change since the implementation of Dayton Accords, the legacy of conflict has persisted, and there is little dialogue throughout the state to form effective reconciliation, as Russia has worked to keep the state in a dysfunctional manner. Russia’s effectiveness as a spoiler of peace has been demonstrated many times at the UN Security Council.  Russia’s power to vetoing decision have even included the renewal of EUFOR and the decision that would have condemned the 1995 Srebrenica massacre as a genocide. 

During the Bosnian war, around 500 Russian volunteers fought alongside Bosnian Serb paramilitary units, including Igor Girkin, who would go on to play a vital role in Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014). Hungary under Orban has additionally been effective in limiting Western sanction against Republika Srpska by threatening to veto any actions against the Bosnian Serb entity. This is an extension of Hungary’s anti-immigration and Islamophobic policies that are tuned in with Bosnian Serb rhetoric. 

Serbia, Hungary and Russia: The forefathers of anti-Westernism in Europe

Yet Republika Srpska’s biggest trading partner is the EU, despite its desire to be more like its fatherland, Serbia, who hedges its bets towards Russia and China. Succession for Republika Srpska would only be possible if it were to join directly to Serbia. Nevertheless, like Yugoslavia, Serbia pivots both East and West. Each year around 200 million euros are paid to Serbia from the European Union to strengthen the rule of law, undertake administration reforms, and foster environmental protection through the Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance. 

Meanwhile, all public opinion surveys in Serbia indicate that citizens overestimate aid from other foreign policy actors, such as Russia and China, while underestimating European Union funds. Hence, anti-Western rhetoric is fuelled by exaggerating the assistance of China and Russia, which is bound to rifle some heads of states in the European Union. Serbia’s president, Vučić, had mastered the act of balancing between the East and West, especially between the European Union and Russia. While he declared “support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine”, he refused to join Western sanctions against Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The European Parliament reacted with a resolution that expressed in part it “strongly regrets Serbia’s non-alignment with EU sanctions against Russia, which damages its EU accession process.” Vučić has continuously cited Russia’s refusal to impose sanctions on Serbia during the Balkan wars of the 1990s, where Serbia faced isolation by the majority of European states and backlash from the international community for Serbia’s actions in Kosovo and Bosnia. 

Russia is a key actor in Serbian politics, especially in the public domain as the Russian state broadcaster, Russia Today, is popular throughout Serbia. Putin himself has become iconic for Serbian nationalists, for his begrudging protest of the NATO bombings of Belgrade of 1999, which took place without UN Security Council approval, comparing that, and justifying it with his invasion of Ukraine.
Belgrade remains out of touch with the European bloc on shutting out Russia, instead, Serbia ramped up services for Russians to travel into Serbia. Now, Belgrade hosts a large portion of Russians that have fled the regime that the Serbians profoundly support. Public opinions in Serbia and Republika Srpska are almost identical, and while most of the population in Bosnia and Herzegovina would like to enter the European Union, the same cannot be said for Republika Srpska, which has repeatedly curtailed requirements for accession.

Republika Srpska has increasingly been supported by the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, who has vowed that any European Union moves to sanction Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik for his separatist plans will be blocked. Moreover, Hungary has provided 100 million euros in financial support to Republika Srpska, intensifying relations. Hungary considers Republika Srpska as a joint entity of its neighbour, Serbia, which it shares good relations with. This may not come so much of a surprise as Hungary acts estranged from the rest of the European Union, which was made especially visible during the 2015 refugee crisis. 

Something more worrying is the large arsenals in many communities that were surplus following the conflict. Many homes throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina have a firearm, despite many calls for amnesty to encourage citizens to hand in these weapons without legal repercussions. Nevertheless, since the mass shooting took place in Belgrade, public opinion towards weapons is shifting across the western Balkans. Despite this, people are not always willing to give up their weapons in fear that fighting will once again happen, and many villages will claim to be ready for another conflict. The prospect of another conflict remains blurry, however it is clear secession does seem likely.

Therefore, the peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina is becoming increasingly fragile, especially as Bosnian Serbs continue to rewrite history, through self-victimisation and efforts to claim reason for their actions during the conflict. On Top of the meddling and agitation by external forces such as Russia and Serbia, the European Union is becoming increasingly powerless, as its role as a bank for Republika Srpska is what keeps it relevant. As the international community ignores these factors that are happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina, it sadly may not be long before Europe witnesses another frontier of conflict in the region.